The Obama Meeting: Cliched Action From Canada’s UltraSecret Playbook

It is getting nearer to the Super Bowl time and the Coach of Canada’s border DRIC team is pulling out all the stops to make the big score. He is giving it 110%.

True, the DRIC team has had a few setbacks recently. They had their clock cleaned when President Bush rebuffed them several times. However, they are not discouraged. They are going to take it one Presidential meeting at a time.

It will be the grand-daddy of them all, the meeting between US President Obama and Canada’s Prime Minister Harper. I am sure that you saw the story

• “Barack Obama will make his first foreign trip as president of the United States to Canada, the prime minister’s office confirmed Saturday.
  
  The war in Afghanistan, climate change and the global recession are certain to be high on the agenda of meetings between Obama and Prime Minister Stephen Harper.”

I am sure that you have noticed that there was nothing mentioned by the PM's Office about our border crossing. That was deliberate to throw off the Bridge Company and the American Government if they have done any pre-meeting scouting. Fake them out. Catch them lead-footed!

Of course, Canada will stick to their game plan. It's decision time for Canada. They're in their hurry-up offence, expecting the Bridge Company to blitz. Seriously, it could be Canada’s last down and it’s goal to go! Canada really has to come away with some points when they are this close.

It has not been a good time for Canadians. They have run into a brick wall.

They literally were run over by a freight train when Dan Stamper made his presentations in Ottawa and Lansing at the various Governmental hearings.

Diplomacy, especially international diplomacy, is a game of field position. This game is being won in the trenches. I can just hear the Canadian Coach saying to his team:

• “Just go out and execute. We have to keep the drive alive.”

Of course the Bridge Company Defensive team is no slouch either. Stamper has been able to sack the Canadian bureaucrats a number of times. When he talked about the Company’s legal right to build their bridge, nobody laid a glove on him. He has been able to break through the phony Canadian line about increasing truck volumes so many times that he could drive a truck through that hole.

There certainly is no love lost between Canada and the Bridge Company.

One mystery has been cleared up, at least in my mind: why it took so long for the Star to write about the Kergin report and why they did not focus on the DRIC bridge that was part of the report.

Clearly, after all of the offensive setbacks… the Canadian Ambassador’s NAFTA-gate actions with respect to the Democratic candidate when he was running in the Primaries and for election was certainly offensive…Canada has had to come up with a new approach.

That was former Canadian Ambassador to the US Michael Kergin’s job. It took time for him to do his work. But his job has been accomplished and the Star’s Editorial was nothing more than a call to action setting out the approach that should be taken. The former Ambassador knows that Canada does not have all the time in the world. Canada has to be right on the money or it is game over.

Do not however expect a direct approach by the Prime Minister to the President. That tactic has failed miserably. Expect instead a variation of the Statue of Liberty play. It is a trick play that is described as something done “where one side is so far behind they're desperate enough to try anything.”

What Canada is going to try to do is an endrun the President. They want to work around him, to isolate him. Canada wants the lower level bureaucrats to make the decision and just present it to the President to be rubberstamped.

Unfortunately for Canada, a copy of the Kergin Report has fallen into the hands of the Bridge Company. They know what is going to happen and they are ready for it.

Canada's Coach wants to try a fake and see if they can pull it off. Here is what is going to happen.

Part of this is taken right from Kergin’s Report with a few add-ons by the Canadian Striped Pants diplomats who need to pretend that they have a role. The whole approach is to keep everything lowkey. It is absolutely essential to keep the American decision-makers out of the loop and to let the Canadian diplomats and politicians sucker in their American counterparts. That is exactly what is set out in Canada’s Ultrasecret Playbook. The Kergin plan fits in beautifully:

1. The Kergin Report plan has a subliminal name: “A New Bridge for Old Allies.”
2. Canada should attempt to influence President Obama NOT by directly advocating for the DRIC bridge, although the subject will be brought up by the Prime Minister as he did before, but by doing it indirectly
3. Since free trade is so important to Canada and the new President may need to become somewhat protectionist to maintain his Union base, there is a need to stress how important trade is to our two countries. It is absolutely essential to get the President onside with respect to free trade with Canada at the least before he knows what hits him
4. The Prime Minister needs to talk again as he did with President Bush about the American dependence on Canadian oil and energy by discussing how Russia cut off gas supplies to the Ukraine
5. The American concern re Homeland Security after 9/11 needs to be acknowledged but in the context that security ought not to trump trade
6. “At their first meeting, Prime Minister Harper and President Obama should mandate the creation of a Permanent Joint Border Commission to modernize and manage the border."
7. The Commission should be framed in the context of security by bringing up the past where Canada and the United States formed a Permanent Joint Board of Defence that has been around for 68 years
8. A press release needs to be issued to cement the deal that says something like this:
   
   “Media Opportunity, February 14, 2009
   
   Today the President met with the Prime Minister of Canada in their first meeting as leaders, exchanging views on critical foreign policy issues, including Afghanistan and global climate change.
   
   The leaders agreed to appoint two high level Personal Representatives, Mr/Ms……, from Canada and the Honourable……, from the United States, to prepare recommendations to modernize our shared border and to secure our economic competitiveness, including devising a bi-national body to coordinate the implementation of new border measures.
   
   The Personal Representatives will report back within six months with their findings and recommendations.”
9. Naturally, former Ambassador Kergin would be Canada’s representative since he understands what the object of the exercise is i.e. to get the DRIC bridge built and he would understand how to hide that objective from the Americans.
10. Within the six-month period, a Report would be prepared on a number of issues but the key one buried within the Report would be to build a 3P Bridge in Windsor/Detroit. Note Kergin does not want a P3 bridge but 3P one to confuse everyone more.

Canada has to rise to the occasion. If that play could be run successfully, that would give Canada some room to operate. Canada cannot afford to cough it up here. If they do, it would be a costly turnover.

I am certain that you noticed that the statement about the meeting between the President and the Primer Minister that came out of the PM's office talks specifically about what was in the Kergin Report.

In a Canadian Press Report

• "Michael Hart, a free-trade negotiator and the Simon Reisman chair at the Norman Patterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa... said Harper shouldn't try to build a relationship with Obama based on "irritant resolution" but rather focus on developing "mutual confidence and trust" by working together on issues that include climate change, the global economic crisis and global security issues."

Do you see what I mean? Canada's play has started. While supposedly no date for the meeting has been determined yet, if the date is settled on February 14, then you will understand exactly what is going on, dear reader.

Unfortunately for Canada, the Bridge Company team will be able to read the play easily now that they have seen the Kergin report. They will have it covered like a blanket. They will be able to sniff out the move and to assert themselves.

It will be another ill advised move orchestrated by Canadian Ambassador to the US Michael Wilson again. It will be so obvious when the Canadian Team telegraphs the move. I am sure that, when he is asked to resign his position finally, his big regret will be that he did not have the opportunity to have that one play back.

A hint however that Canada could be in serious trouble even using this trick play:

• "The fact Barack Obama is meeting with Mexican President Felipe Calderon before Prime Minister Stephen Harper smacks of political payback for the Conservative government interfering in the U.S. Democratic primaries, critics say."

Clearly, after all these years as the Ambassador Gateway project moves forward, the momentum has definitely shifted to the Bridge Company. In the end, it all comes down to which team wants to win it more. And when one is risking one's own money, about $500M already and an equal amount to come, and not taxpayers' cash, it should be obvious who has to work harder.

As for the bureaucrats who are trying to protect their careers now after wasting years of time and $60M in expenditures, they are no longer playing to win. Now they are playing not to lose.

This political diplomacy might not be the Super Bowl, but to these two groups, this is the biggest game of the year.