- "Basically, it is not good business sense to have a monopoly on such an important trade route," said Sean O'Dell, executive director of the Windsor Gateway Project, the Canadian portion of the proposed bridge. "Moroun will lose some traffic, but there's more than enough business to go around."
"Some traffic!" Has he not read the US DRIC reports about how much traffic the DRIC bridge is supposed to take away from the Ambassador Bridge? "More than enough business to go around" with the auto industry in the dumpster! How can he make these statements?
If he is speaking for the Canadian Government, then the Peace Bridge cannot build their second bridge and the Bridge Company will be allowed to build in Fort Erie/Buffalo their Ambassador Niagara Signature Bridge to end the Government "monopoly" in that area.
He has just made a fool out of the Minister of Finance if Transport Canada is providing the economic justification for the financing of the DRIC border crossing. Minister Flaherty's reputation would go into the toilet at a time when his credibility is essential. He was pushing for a P3 in Windsor/Detroit at the recent P3 Conference:
Who would invest in a DRIC Bridge when traffic numbers are falling. How can he possibly make his comments when supposedly the investment grade traffic study will not be completed until next June, a year late?If I did not know any better, the Governments may want someone to sue them because of the deficiencies in the DRIC materials in order to stop the out-of-control process. They do not have the guts themselves to stop after spending $60M or so on this Megaproject boondoggle on both sides of the border. They would look like incompetents for going on for so long.
I shudder to think what an Auditor-General value-for-money audit would look like on this project! In another BLOG soon, I will give an example of one that was done that will make your hair stand on edge and your wallet feel emptier when you see the waste of taxpayer money.
Check this out.
- Sarnia feels impact of sputtering economy
"Chuck Chrapko of the Blue Water Bridge Authority confirmed that truck traffic is down significantly.
“It’s been dropping for the past two years and we thought it would level out by now,” he said.
In November, trucks traffic crossing the Blue Water Bridge was down about 15 per cent from November 2007.
“It took a good hit in November,” Chrapko said. “We know 25 per cent of the product crossing here is auto-related but we aren’t able to say those are the ones that aren’t crossing. And, of course, they’re not all local trucks.”
Or this
- "US-Canada toll traffic hit by auto & economy woes - November 15% lower
November traffic at the US-Canadian border around the Great Lakes and St Lawrence is down strongly according to data on eleven major crossings collected by the Public Border Operators Association (PBOA) - from 3.28m 2007-11 to 2.77m 2008-11, a decline of 15.4%. The decline has been gaining in recent months. The month-on-same-month-last year (MOSMLY) declines have been Aug 4.0%, Sept 8.7%, Oct 11.3%, Nov 15.4%.
Truck traffic is down the most, Nov trucks being down 21.5%, cars 13.9%.
In absolute terms 2008-11 was 534k trucks vs 680k 2007-11, cars 2.27m 2008-11 vs 2.59m 200711.
Some of the decline is no doubt due to the special troubles of the Once-Big Three Detroit car companies which have heavily integrated operations on either side of the international border especially in the Toronto- Detroit corridor, Ontario-Michigan.
About half the total traffic and close to two-thirds of the truck traffic at the eleven border crossings is accounted for at the three in the Detroit area so it looms large in the total. Those are Ambassador Bridge, Detroit-Windsor Tunnel and Blue Water Bridge.
Not just the Toronto-Detroit corridor
But the crossings outside the Detroit area are down significantly also. The four Niagara crossings NY-ON are down almost 16% and trucks down nearly 18%. Those are crossings that cater to a wide mix of trade, tourism and commuting.
So too do what we've called the St Lawrence River crossings between northern NY and western Ontario/Quebec.
These are down 10% overall, and 24% for truck traffic.
We're at a loss to explain the magnitude of these drops in traffic. They are larger than we've seen reported anywhere else. The Canadian economy has held up rather than better than the US economy with less financial stress.
Maybe it's something to do with the Canadian dollars declining suddenly relative to the US dollar. From being close to par then in the low 90s it has dropped to 82c in the past several weeks. However in the past such fluctuations have not affected traffic noticeably."
However, if you really want to know how bad the traffic volume has fallen in this area take a look at this story from March, 2004:
- "Sarnia truck route touted; Need for crossing in Windsor may be cut by increased use of Blue Water Bridge;
Diverting truck traffic to Sarnia is a viable border congestion solution that's been dropped from the latest round of the binational process, said a citizens group fighting any new routes that would cut through LaSalle.
The binational group's own reports say 30 per cent of commercial traffic that goes through Windsor could use Sarnia's Blue Water Bridge "without significant travel time increases," and 44 per cent of all trucks are long-distance haulers that aren't making a stop in either Windsor or Detroit.
If those trucks can be encouraged to use the Blue Water -- which is expected to operate below capacity until 2030 -- the need for a new border crossing somewhere on the Detroit River may prove unnecessary, said Ken Drouillard, a University of Windsor assistant biology professor and member of the LaSalle citizens group....
Offering truck firms a financial incentive to travel through Sarnia would end up cheaper than building a new border crossing, Drouillard said. Yet in the drawing up of a proposed terms of reference for a soon-to-start environmental assessment, reference to Sarnia as an option has been dropped.
"The question is why the terms of reference are strictly focusing on the Detroit River as the only alternative," Drouillard said.
Dave Wake, interim coordinator for the binational group, said the current terms of reference only look at potential routes and crossing sites along the Detroit River because even if a large share of trucks were diverted to Sarnia, this region will still need a new border crossing to meet demands. "
In 2004, DRIC said we had so many trucks that were going to cross here that even if a large share of them them were diverted to Sarnia we would still need another bridge.
Fast forward to today and the US DRAFT EIS. To justify the DRIC bridge financial position, traffic must be taken FROM both the Tunnel AND the Blue Water Bridge. As I Blogged before:
- "The US report states that the new bridge will control up to 80% of the truck traffic and 60% of the car traffic thereby taking a big part of the business of the Ambassador Bridge and that it will take away 26% of the Detroit Tunnel's traffic and about 18% of the Blue Water Bridge truck traffic.
Remember, we were supposed to keep away truck traffic as much as possible. Now DRIC wants to bring it to us. Not just any traffic mind you but hazardous material traffic that can go through the Green Link Schwunnels if Eddie is successful."
DRIC itself has shot down the idea of an Ambassador Bridge monopoly. Traffic volumes are down not up with little expectation of a major improvement for a very long period of time. To make a DRIC Bridge financially viable, traffic has to be brought here now. Weren't we trying to get rid of traffic initially?
I do not believe that the Governments do not know what their consultants are saying re the investment grade traffic study. A Report may not have been produced but that does not mean that the information is not known. If one had been produced last June and the results did not support the basic assumption underlying the DRIC bridge--increased traffic volumes--- it would have to be produced as part of the DRIC process. It would kill the project wouldn't it!
Our Mayor ought to get real. If he really wanted to litigate over DRIC, he would not fight it on environmental issues, especially ones that will disappear as engines and diesel fuel are improved, but he would do it on cold, hard economic facts. He would easily be able to demonstrate that the project would go bankrupt and might take the other regional crossings down with it.
To get the facts, I have filed with Transport Canada a Freedom of Information application for these records:
- I would appreciate if you would provide me with the following records:
1) The Windsor Star reported on April 16, 2008 that "Transport Canada is conducting surveys at Windsor and Sarnia border crossings to get information on future traffic and revenue that might convince a private company to help build and operate a new bridge. " All records in relation to that survey including but not limited to the results and any reports based on the survey.
2) Records relating to the "development of policy, strategies and operational protocols and practices for the planning and development of a new WINDSOR-Detroit Crossing" (Note--that language was used in document T8080-08-0040. I am looking for all records under that classification, not just under that document)
3) Records relating to PRP International and anyone else retained as an "Expert Advisor" including anyone chosen under Reference Number 151548 Solicitation Number T8080-08-0040
4) Records relating to those parties to whom Requests for Proposals were distributed and those who actually provided proposals under the Request for Proposal: TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECASTERs FOR THE WINDSOR GATEWAY PROJECT including but not limited to their proposal
5) Records relating to all TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECASTERs and studies including but not limited to forecasters and forecast refreshers FOR THE WINDSOR GATEWAY PROJECT including but not limited to ones prepared under Request for Proposal # T8080-07-0339, and those prepared by Wilbur Smith, URS, IBI and any Government Department or outside consultant and from any ad hoc traffic and revenue forecasting services.
6) All traffic and revenue forecast records provided by Transport Canada to
--any Federal Government Office or Department including but not limited to CBSA, the Ministry of Finance, the PCO, the Prime Minister’s Office
--the Province of Ontario, its Premier or any Government Office or Department including but not limited to Ministry of Transportation, Infrastructure Ontario, Ministry of Finance
--City of Windsor, its Mayor or any Government Office or Department
--State of Michigan, its Governor or any Government Office or Department including but not limited to MDOT
--Government of the United States, President of the United States, its Secretary of Transportation, or any Government Office or Department including but not limited to including FHWA, CBP, Department of Transportation, Department of State, Homeland Security,
--Corradino Group, URS, Wilbur Smith, IBI or any other consultant
--any private sector firm or potential investor or financial institution in the WINDSOR GATEWAY PROJECT
--any Federal, Provincial, State or Municipal politician
7) All traffic and revenue forecast records provided by any of the parties in 6) above to Transport Canada.
If I am right in my assumptions, DRIC is finished. Why the Governments did not follow the kangaroo precedent that I have Blogged about before astounds me!
[BLOG, Wednesday, April 11, 2007, “How A Kangaroo Can Save Canada's Economy." http://windsorcityon.blogspot.com/2007/04/how-kangaroo-can-save-canadas-economy.html ]
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